EBACE Convention News

JetNet iQ Forecast Sees 13,000 New Aircraft by 2032

 - May 24, 2023, 4:22 PM

Approximately 13,000 turbine business aircraft are projected to be delivered over the next decade, according to the latest JetNet iQ industry forecast released on Tuesday morning at EBACE 2023. Presented by JetNet's Rolland Vincent and Paul Cardarelli, the outlook calls for shipments of 8,637 jets and 4,265 turboprops by the end of 2032. At that point, the global fleet should tally approximately 44,500 aircraft, based on an anticipated 7,000 aircraft retirements.

Vincent, JetNet iQ’s (Booth M71) creator and director, noted that while the macroeconomic outlook is dampening enthusiasm, “the business aviation industry has been absolutely firing on all cylinders. We have super demand for our products and services.” The five major business jet OEMs all have book-to-bills above 1:1, he noted. “What we don't have is super supply and we haven't had [that] for some time.”

While airframer backlogs have returned to two-year-plus waits, associated business aircraft deliveries have not yet rebounded to their pre-Covid levels due to lingering supply chain issues. “Whether you're a service provider or a product provider, an airframer, or an engine company, you're running into service issues,” explained Vincent. “Whether they're not answering the phones, not delivering to the production line, or not showing up when you expect it to be backed up, this is not changing. Maybe we've solved 80 or 90 percent of the market issues, but every airplane needs every part to go out the door.”

As well, the preowned aircraft inventory across virtually all segments is rebounding from the recent record lows.

As part of its quarterly industry surveys, JetNet iQ attempts to gauge market sentiment among respondents. In this latest survey, the global responses showed the numbers of those who thought the market had not yet reached its low point and those who believe it is on an upswing were nearly equal at around 46 percent each, with just 7.5 percent indicating the market was at its low point.

Vincent noted that North America led in pessimism, with more than half saying they believe the market will decline further. “This is the first time we have seen this,” he said. “Owners and operators are the customers in the room. They're not feeling very optimistic right now, and what we're going to say about that is that slows down order activity and transaction activity for a little while.”

Considering current market conditions, Vincent said JetNet iQ is "keeping the forecast fairly muted for the next two to three years."  Even so, the company's outlook calls for deliveries to accelerate after 2025 given plans for production ramp, new products coming to market, and not-yet-announced products in the works.