J.P.Morgan Sees Sluggish 2013

 - December 20, 2012, 3:15 PM

The business jet market in 2013 isn’t going to be a lot better than in the previous four years, according to the December Aerospace and Defense Business Jet Monthly report from J.P.Morgan. The financial services company describes the business jet cycle as “still stuck in neutral.”

At the same time, it also notes intermittent signs of stabilization in a cyclical industry “that should turn up eventually.” The near-term outlook, says the report, is not encouraging. But the trend does appear to be upward, with 628 business jet deliveries forecast next year, 750 deliveries in 2014 and 856 in 2015.

But for now, J.P.Morgan analysts note that used market inventories are poised to exit 2012 at about the same point they entered the year; used aircraft pricing is still declining; flight operations are showing little or no growth; and emerging market-driven demand for heavy jets that buoyed the market in 2011 has moderated in recent months.

In short, the report reflects at best guarded optimism in the short term, concluding: “We forecast deliveries will grow by two percent in 2013, with ‘potential’ for orders to pick up and drive a more robust 2014.”