NBAA Convention News

JetNet Forecast Sees Modest Growth

 - October 10, 2017, 4:17 PM

According to the latest forecast from JetNet, 8,436 new business jets (including single-engine personal jets such as the recently-certified Cirrus Vision) worth $223 billion (2017 $) will be delivered worldwide bewteen this year and 2026. Subtracting the personal jet category leaves 7,489 jets worth $217 billion, which represents an increase of three percent in units and two percent in total value from the company’s previous forecast.

Through its JetNet iQ product, the Utica-based company predicts a 2.2 percent compounded annual growth rate among private jets over the next 10 years, reaching a total of 26,321 by 2026. This represents an increase of 24 percent over the current total.

Over the life of the forecast, JetNet expects the U.S. fleet to grow by 21 percent, to 16,533 business jets (including personal jets), by the end of 2026. JetNet forecasts a modest rebound in the small and midsize categories, based on owner/operator purchase intentions, stronger U.S. consumer sentiment and noticeable strengthening in the pre-owned turboprop and light jet segments, which the company believes is a precursor to a more broad-based rebound.

The company also believes that the current slump in Chinese orders will be “relatively short-lived” and that delivery and fleet growth across the Asia-Pacific region will outpace all other regions at 65 percent. That growth will be dependent upon a variety of legislative and economic factors, including shifting Chinese government priorities; new and more liberal rules governing airport and airways access through out the region; and new infrastructure investments.

Additionally, the forecast sees growth of 36 percent in the Middle East over the 10-year window, followed by Europe (35 percent) and the former Soviet Union (32 percent). The company pointed out that, with the exception of Europe, those percentage increases correspond to relatively modest fleet sizes.

The JetNet data shows the continuing survivability of business jets, as more than 90 percent of them produced 30 years ago or sooner are still in service. From there, the rates tumble all the way down to the approximately 10 percent of jets produced in 1967 that are listed as still in operation. JetNet expects this to trend to continue despite the many and well-known issues associated with aging aircraft.