Owners of business aircraft that are not ADS-B-compliant or in the queue to have equipment installed risk seeing already depressed residual values fall even further in advance of FAA’s Jan. 1, 2020 deadline, according to GAMA president and CEO Pete Bunce. "The value of your asset is going to start dropping even before 2020—this is for rotorcraft and fixed-wing—if you don’t have a slot to upgrade,” he said yesterday during a panel at the National Air Transportation Association’s Business Aviation Conference. “If you’re in the business aviation category and you hit 2020 [without an upgrade], the price [of your aircraft] is going to just plummet.”
While the FAA is adamant that the ADS-B deadline will not be pushed back, Bunce said that too many operators are holding out hope that the date will slip. “Because of that belief, right now, we are not on pace to get the fleet equipped by the 2020 mandate,” he warned.
GAMA is working with the aircraft-valuation community to collect data that will help quantify the problem, Bunce said. The association plans to make the data available to encourage equipage while there is still time to shift momentum. “We have the industrial capacity to get the fleet modified,” Bunce said. But, he cautioned, "If everybody waits until 2019, then it’s not going to happen."