Honeywell Aerospace has lowered its annual 10-year business jet delivery forecast to 8,600 aircraft worth an approximate $255 billion. The avionics and engine maker’s 25th annual Global Business Aviation Outlook is down approximately 6 percent from last year’s demand forecast of 9,200 units worldwide.
For this year, the company estimates worldwide deliveries of 650 to 675 new private jets, down from last year’s tally of 693. According to the report, the decrease is largely due to slower order rates for mature models and stabilization in aircraft deliveries to fractional providers.
Honeywell (Stand 549) forecasts a further slight decline in 2017 before it expects deliveries will begin to pick up in 2018 on the strength of several new aircraft entering service.
Broken down by region, BRIC purchase plans rebounded off last year’s lows, reaching an anticipated replacement or addition to respondents existing fleets of just more than 32 percent in this year’s survey. Brazil recorded the highest new aircraft purchase plans from a major market in the survey, while Honeywell also sees improvement in Chinese and Russian purchase plans, compared with last year’s results.
For the remainder of the Asia Pacific market, new jet acquisition plans roughly doubled from last year’s survey, with respondents planning on purchases equal to 28 percent of their fleet over the next five years. Interest has also increased in the Middle East and Africa, and while the overall buying rate plan is below the world average, it has improved over 2015.
While Europe’s purchase expectations in this year’s survey rose to replace or add the equivalent of 30 percent of their current fleet with a new jet purchase in the next five years, its share of the estimated global five-year demand remained at 14 percent as the European fleet has not expanded in recent years largely due to the migration of aircraft into other regions.
Lastly, North America increased its projected share of global demand by four points from last year’s survey, to 65 percent. New jet purchase plans rose five points in the industry’s largest market, helping propel the world average of expected fleet replacement or expansion over the next five years to 27 percent.