Vladimir Karnozov

Russia has now flown more combat air sorties over Syria than the U.S.-led Operation Inherent Resolve (OIR) has flown over Syria and Iraq combined. The weight of Russian airpower has enabled the Assad regime to regain significant territory from Syrian opposition forces, including the second city of Aleppo. But the situation on the ground remains complicated, with Damascus opposing a Turkish-led offensive against Islamic State (ISIS or Daesh) that is being quietly supported by Russia.


On December 22, Russian defense minister Sergei Shoigu said that the Russian Aviation and Space Force (VKS) performed approximately 8,800 combat sorties for 71,000 air strikes, killed 35,000 gunmen and destroyed 1,500 vehicles and artillery pieces. Captured items included 488 tanks and armored vehicles, 475 rocket launchers and 410 mortars. Since the expedition group went in action in October 2015, it destroyed 725 terrorist training camps and 405 industrial facilities manufacturing explosives and munitions. Interestingly, VKS first deputy commander Lt. Gen. Pavel Kurachenko said that the total of combat sorties numbered more than 30,000. The difference might be explained by Kurachenko having included helicopter flights, which are often not counted by the defense ministry.


In December, the Pentagon said that about 16,500 combat sorties had been flown during OIR, about two thirds in Iraq and the remainder in Syria.


For public image reasons, VKS has not flown combat missions over Aleppo since October 2016, leaving the job of conducting air strikes on rebel positions in the city completely to the Syrian air force. Despite significant combat losses in 2016—including four MiG-21s, eight MiG-23BN/MLs, two Su-22M4s and two L-39s (as well as some helicopters)—the Syrian air force remains active with more than 100 serviceable jets. The Syrian platform of choice has been the Su-22M4 swing-wing strike fighter. Against heavily fortified positions and high-value targets in Aleppo, Syrian Su-22M4s have sometimes used 1,102-pound ODAB-500 vacuum bombs.


Another type in the Syrian inventory that is capable of precision strikes is the Su-24M, although combat attrition has halved the total to fewer than 10 operational examples. The type was employed in August 2016 on long-range missions to Hasakah to drop bombs on the Kurdish fighters when they clashed with the government forces for control of the city center. The type went into action again in December, when its home base—the T-4 (Al-Tias) aerodrome—came under attack from Islamic State forces after they captured Palmyra.


Most Syrian air force attacks last year were executed by MiG-23MF/ML and MiG-21 interceptors using free-fall bombs and unguided rockets. Since these types lack sighting systems, the accuracy has depended entirely on piloting skills. The active MiG-23 fleet is estimated at between 80 and 90, of which only a few are the dedicated "BN" strike version. A handful of Syria’s surviving L-39ZO/ZA twin-seat trainers are also operating as strike aircraft. One such jet was shot down over Aleppo in December, and two more were hit by anti-tank missiles at Deir Ez Zoir airfield by besieging Islamic State &nbsp;forces in January. Recentlyoverhauled airframes have been outfitted with B-8 pods for 80-mm unguided rockets, which greatly enhanced their fire power.


In the last days of 2016 the VKS bombed Islamic State targets in support of the Turkish-led offensive Euphrates Shield, which commenced in August 2016 and involves rebel groups from so-called Free Syrian Army (FSA). In early 2017, the Turkish air force and the Russians expanded their cooperation to coordinated air strikes in the vicinity of Al-Bab town in the northern part of Aleppo province.


Damascus does not support the Euphrates Shield operation, and sometimes even strikes FSA and other rebel groups when they clash or exchange artillery fire with the Syrian government troops on positions to the west and south of Al-Bab. Following the expulsion of the armed opposition from the easternpart of Aleppo city, the Syrian air force moved focus onto rebel enclaves south of Damascus and southwest provinces. For its part, the Russian air power has become more active around the ancient city of Palmyra, whichwas re-captured by Islamic State forces in December.


Following its defeat in the east of Aleppo and the western outskirts of the city in a series of decisive battles of the second half of 2016, the Syrian opposition has agreed a ceasefire in Aleppo and Idlib provinces with Damascus. This truce has largely held, enabling Moscow and Ankara to proceed with plans to arrange a lasting peace and, at the same time, increase pressure on Islamic State. But a Russian defense ministry complaint last October that "cooperation between Russia and the U.S. in the fight against al-Nusra and Daesh has not started yet," remains valid today.


As part of a broader peace deal, Moscow has announced a reduction in its expeditionary force. The naval task force deployed off the coast of Latakia is being withdrawn. Capital ships, including the Russian navy's only carrier Admiral Kuznetsov, are expected to arrive back at Severomorsk by February. According to the chief of staff of the Russian Armed Forces Gen. Valery Gerasimov, in the course of two months Russian naval aircraft performed 420 flights and destroyed 1,252 targets.


Apart from airstrikes, Russian and Syrian air forces are using Il-76 airlifters to drop supplies to the city of Deir Ez-Zoir, besieged by Islamic State. The Iranian air force has also performed airdrops over Syria, to the rebel-besieged Shia enclaves in Idlib province using C-130Hs and occasionally Il-76s. Iranian An-74 STOL airlifters were sighted recently at Aleppo Airport, which has re-opened.&nbsp;

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