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Leeham News and Analysis Staff

Boeing’s 2011 decision to launch another derivative of the 737—a slow response to the Airbus A321neo—along with the series of crises involving the 737 Max beginning on March 10, 2019, caused a dramatic drop in market share, placing Boeing in distant second place behind Airbus.
According to Leeham News and Analysis, total program orders as of December give Airbus a 54% share of the market for the A320neo family, compared to Boeing’s 33% for the Max. Adding the A220 into Airbus’ share, the European company has captured 58% of the single-aisle market.
China’s Comac C919 captured 7% of the single-aisle market, according to data from Cirium and other sources. Embraer, with its two-class, 100-seat E190-E2 and 120-seat E195-E2 jets, captured a mere 2% of the 100- to 240-seat sector.
<h2>How 737 Became No. 2</h2>
Boeing’s distant number two position is in stark contrast to 20 years ago, before it was overtaken by Airbus in the wake of the 9/11 terrorist attacks. Boeing’s largest market then was the U.S. American carriers, which were impacted far more than Airbus’ markets in Europe and Asia. Airbus overtook Boeing in 2004.
Airbus launched its A320neo family in December 2010. Boeing didn’t respond with its 737 Max until the following July. However, the Max 10, a direct competitor to the A321neo, wasn’t launched until June 2017, almost six years after the Max program began. By then, sales of the A321neo had an insurmountable lead. The A321neo is the best-selling version of the new Airbus narrowbody family.
The 21-month grounding of the Max from March 10, 2019, and Boeing’s low-rate production of the Max after the grounding further eroded the 737’s market share. Boeing hopes to achieve the pre-grounding monthly production rate of 52 late next year. However, an RBC Capital Market survey of 35 suppliers indicates that the supply chain doesn’t expect this to be achieved until 2027. By then, Airbus will be building about 65 A320s a month and on a path to 75. Boeing’s current plan is to achieve 737 rates at 63 per month in 2028 or 2029.
<h2>Single- and Twin-aisle Backlogs</h2>
Not all sales announced at the Dubai Airshow in November have been converted into firm orders and recorded on the company websites.&nbsp;With order data reported through November, Airbus has a 55% market share of the backlog for the 125- to 240-seat single-aisle aircraft. This combines the A220 and A320neo families.
Boeing, now increasing its production rate and taking hundreds of new orders, has a 34% share, with Comac and the Embraer E195-E2 rounding out the remaining 11%. China’s Comac now has a 10% backlog market share.
The A321neo is by far the most popular single-aisle airplane, with a 39% market share. Boeing’s competing Max 10 is currently outsold by the A321neo by a 4:1 margin and holds a 9% share of the sector. The 737 Max 8, with a 20% share, outsells the A320neo, which has a 13% share.
<h2>Boeing Dominates Widebody Sector</h2>
Boeing continues to dominate the widebody sector with a 59% share of the backlog and total program orders. Its widebody product line includes the 787-8, -9, and -10 Dreamliners; 777F and 777-8F freighters; and the 777-8 and 777-9, passenger variants of Boeing’s next-generation 777X family.
The 787-8 has only 24 remaining orders. The 777F will be discontinued at the end of next year; its replacement, the 777-8F, won’t be ready until 2029 or 2030. A 787F design is on the shelf but not expected to be offered for sale any time soon, and it won't be ready for delivery until 2030 or later.
Airbus has the A330-800 and -900, A350-900, A350F, and A350-1000. The A330-800 only has 12 sales, with four undelivered. Sales of the larger A330-900 haven’t hit 500 yet, and it has become a niche airplane for airlines needing a widebody sooner than the A350 is available.
Tim Clark, president of the airline Emirates, wants Airbus and Boeing to develop larger versions of the A350-1000 and 777-9, nominally called the A350-2000 and 777-10. Each company essentially has designs all but done, but neither has indicated it’s willing to proceed.
Leeham’s analysis was conducted before Boeing released its fourth-quarter results on January 27. Airbus is set to issue its 2025 earnings report on February 19.

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