Global passenger traffic will grow at an average 4.6 percent a year, driving a need for some 32,600 new mainline aircraft worth $4.9 trillion, according to Airbus’s latest global market forecast, issued at the Paris Air Show on Monday. By 2034, passenger and freighter fleets will more than double from today’s 19,000 aircraft to 38,500. More fuel efficient types will replace some 13,100 passenger and freighter aircraft, Airbus said.
Emerging economies will account for the fastest growth, expanding at some 5.8 percent a year compared with more advanced economies, like those in Western Europe or North America, which forecasts indicate will grow collectively at 3.8 percent. Now accounting for 31 percent of worldwide private consumption, emerging economies will represent 43 percent of consumption by 2034.
According to the Airbus data, in today’s emerging economies, 25 percent of the population take one trip per year. Airbus projects that number will increase to 74 percent by 2034. In advanced economies, such as North America, the tendency to travel will exceed two trips per year, it added.
“Asia Pacific will lead in world traffic by 2034 and China will be the world’s biggest aviation market within 10 years, and clearly Asia and emerging markets are the catalyst for strong air traffic growth,” said Airbus COO for customers John Leahy. “Today, we are ramping up production of the A350 XWB and we are studying further production rate increases beyond rate 50 for single aisle aircraft to meet the increasing demand for air transportation.”
In the widebody market, Airbus forecasts a trend towards higher-capacity aircraft on long haul, and an increasingly wide range of regional and domestic sectors. As a result, Airbus forecasts a requirement for some 9,600 widebody passenger and freighter aircraft over the next 20 years, valued at some $2.7 trillion and representing 30 percent of all new aircraft deliveries.
In the single-aisle market, the latest Airbus forecast sees a requirement for nearly 23,000 new aircraft worth $2.2 trillion over the next 20 years, an increase of nearly 1,000 aircraft compared with the estimate in the previous forecast.