Kerry Lynch stepped into the role of editor of the&nbsp;Aviation International News&nbsp;monthly magazine in May 2022 after serving with&nbsp;AIN&nbsp;for eight years. She joined&nbsp;AIN&nbsp;in December 2014 as a senior editor covering Washington and business aviation news. She has also served on Convention News teams, including as editor of&nbsp;HAI Convention News. Lynch previously spent 25 years with Aviation Week. During her time there, she reported for and later steered&nbsp;The Weekly of Business Aviation, oversaw business aviation content on the&nbsp;Aviation Week Intelligence Network, served on the&nbsp;Show News&nbsp;staff, and held roles as the Washington columnist for&nbsp;Business &amp; Commercial Aviation&nbsp;and&nbsp;Overhaul &amp; Maintenance&nbsp;monthly magazines. In 2021 she was honored with the National Business Aviation Association Platinum Wing Award for lifetime achievement in journalism and was the 2004 recipient of the National Air Transportation Association’s Aviation Journalism Excellence Award. She also has been a recipient of an Aerospace Media Award for business aviation (2022) and NBAA Gold Wing Award (2003, 2024). Lynch graduated from The Ohio State University with a bachelor of arts in journalism.

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Kerry Lynch

Global Jet Capital (GJC) forecasts that the business jet market will reach $193 billion in total new and preowned transactions between 2024 and 2028. Releasing its annual Business Jet Market Forecast on Monday at EBACE, GJC also anticipates that the market will grow again this year after two years of decline.
After reaching nearly 4,000 aircraft trading hands in 2021, the volume dipped to 3,545 in 2022 and 3,021 last year. But it is expected to increase to 3,181 this year. Dollar volume this year should approach the 2022 high of $36.6 billion and surpass that beginning next year before climbing to an estimated $40.3 billion by 2028.
“New deliveries should increase to serve the large backlogs OEMs have accumulated over the past two years, while the preowned market is back to more normal levels and should restart a long-term trend of steady growth,” said GJC chief marketing officer Andrew Farrant.
New deliveries are projected to grow by 9.4% this year and settle at an average annual rate of 3.2% over the next five years, peaking in 2027. Preowned volume is anticipated to increase by 4% this year, while transaction values are predicted to rise 2.2%. Average annual growth rate of volume through 2028 is expected to continue at 3.8%, with dollar volume creeping up by 2.3%.
GJC anticipates the market overall will experience a 4.4% compound annual growth rate with transactions expected to increase at an average annual rate of 3.6% and dollar volume at 4.4% over the next five years. For 2024 alone, transactions are anticipated to grow by 5.3% and dollar volume by 10.7%.
GJC CEO Vivek Kaushal told AIN that this year’s update to its forecast is “reinforcing the key theme that we're seeing across the market right now, which is one of stability.” While stressing that the market is no longer in the “go-go times” right after the pandemic, “backlogs are strong, production is increasing—but gradually—and we’re seeing that client interest remains solid.”
Replacement patterns have returned to usual patterns, as has new growth that is driven by wealth creation, Kaushal added. For young aircraft, “the demand is very much there. Our clients are looking to replace or to upgrade aircraft.”
On the preowned side, the market “had a big, nice run through 2022” but Kaushal explained, “That was driven, in our opinion, by a market that repriced after a long period, and it's going to be a bit smaller than the peak that was back in 2022.”
The preowned market will be a little more muted, particularly on the dollar side. “But again, you’re coming off a couple of blistering years that restored balance in the market and put a nice foundation from which it is going to grow.”
Overall, he characterized the forecast as not seeing any significant change but a reinforcement of the market. “You see markets generally normalized after the upheaval of the pandemic. We continue to see that customer need for business jets and to be used as a business tool, and we don't see any reason that should change anytime soon.”
The strength of backlogs, he said, “gives you forward visibility in a way that this market hasn't enjoyed. When we were looking at last year, we were wondering whether that level of order activity would persist into the future. Fast forward into the second quarter of 2024, and industrywide book to bill is still about one…so we see the persistence.”
Kaushal pointed to the expansion of products in the heavy jet side over the past couple of decades as helping fuel the growth. In the mid-2000s, there wasn’t the same supply available. “This market is mature. It’s a much larger and installed base of super-mid and heavy aircraft, which is the kind of airplanes that our clients like to be in and so that gives it some really good balance to go through, both down as well as up cycles,” he said.
Also driving growth is the array of service options that weren’t available in the past. “The ways in which you can get access to business aviation is now much wider and much richer than it was before,” he said.
As far as customer selections, he noted that after the pandemic, there were new entrants who perhaps didn’t pick the right fit. “You did see people get into aircraft that they perhaps now regret,” he said. “But when you look at the core customer base that we have, they continue to be thoughtful, they continue to think through their requirements and their mission profile.”
However, he did note people tend to have a bias toward aircraft that can execute all their missions, which favors larger aircraft even if 90% of their needs can be met by smaller aircraft. Heavy jets are predicted to enjoy a 7.2% CAGR during the forecast period.
He anticipates that the U.S. will be “a big chunk” of the growth—GJC forecasted it to account for 76.3% of the total market—with Asia Pacific, India, Europe, and the Middle East regions being additive to that expansion. Northern Asia and Eastern Europe are a little quieter, Kaushal further said.
As for the Indian market, Kaushal said a consistent economic policy is fostering stability, which in turn has encouraged expansion. “There’s also been a fairly significant build-out of infrastructure, which is greasing the wheels of the economy there.”
He cautioned that there are still significant regulatory hurdles to overcome, and the industry is exploring ways to work within those constraints. “But it takes time.”
For GJC, which is celebrating its 10th anniversary, it has enjoyed rapid expansion along with the market group. “We've got a strong brand, a global franchise, and we've got the support of an ecosystem that's seen again and again what this business can deliver,” he said.
Looking forward to the next 10 years, Kaushal added, “We're really excited about the foundation that we built to get here.”
The company has done $4.4 billion in originations and expects that to grow to $5 billion next year. “We’ve also really raised the profile of business aviation in the capital markets through our securitization program.” GJC completed its seventh securitization issuance last month.
“When I think about where the market is headed and where we're headed,” he said, he credits the success to not only its partners but also its people. “We are a pure play provider. This is all we do, and that allows us to develop an expertise and hone an expertise and keep it updated. Our clients see that value every day.”

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