Pilot, safety expert, consultant, and aviation journalist Stuart “Kipp” Lau writes about flight safety and airmanship for AIN.

Contributor - Safety

Stuart “Kipp” Lau

An independent analysis of NTSB accident records has cast new light on the most pressing issue affecting business aviation safety: loss of control inflight (LOC-I). The results of the study identified LOC-I as a leading killer in every airplane operation, while unintended flight into instrument meteorological conditions (IMC) was the most common cause of fatalities in Part 135 rotorcraft operations.&nbsp;
Data shows that runway safety remains a persistent problem. However, the extent of this is harder to quantify because this data spans multiple NTSB accident classifications.
Published this month, the study—“<a href="https://blog.apstraining.com/hubfs/Resource%20Offers/Final_US-NTSB-Accident-Data_2016-2025_Fixed-Wing_and_Rotary-Wing_Defining-Events_1st-Edition_October-2026.pdf">U.S. NTSB Accident Data 2016-2025-Fixed-Wing and Rotary-Wing Defining Events, 1st Edition</a>”— examined the latest annual NTSB datasets, covering 2016 to 2025. It focused on airplanes and rotorcraft used in general aviation business, executive/corporate, and Part 135 on-demand operations. In total, 644 accident records were included in the study.&nbsp;
Three notable industry safety experts—Dr. Janeen Kochan, Stuart “Kipp” Lau [Ed. note: Lau is the author of this AINsight blog], and Paul “BJ” Ransbury—coauthored the independent study. All are affiliated with Upset Prevention &amp; Recovery Training Association (UPRTA) International: Kochan is v-p of UPRT Science, Lau is executive v-p and industry liaison, and Ransbury is a co-founder and past president. The coauthors’ primary mission was to validate the data and to provide context.
“We analyzed 10 years of NTSB-supplied accident records, from 2016 through 2025, examining airplanes and helicopters separately across general aviation business, executive/corporate, and Part 135 on-demand operations,” according to Ransbury. “Rather than produce a single accident ranking, we ranked the defining events three ways—by lives lost, fatal accidents, and total accidents—to show frequency and human consequence side by side.”
He added, “The result is a traceable picture of where those outcomes concentrated, using a documented method designed for annual updates and ready adaptation to other aviation datasets from official sources.”
Once the coauthors defined the scope of the project, the data was analyzed using AI-powered research tools resourced by Mesa, Arizona-based Aviation Performance Solutions (APS). The project began with several goals, including to “let the data speak” and develop repeatable, scalable analysis methods for use in other aviation segments. The plan is to revisit each study annually.
<h2>Accident Precursors</h2>
In framing the study, the authors provide a strong caveat: “Accident records capture only the most consequential end of a wider range of safety events.” Using the Heinrich triangle concept, the report reminds the reader that only serious accidents and injuries reach the top, while there are many underlying precursor events and incidents—thus the magnitude of each issue identified may be underreported. &nbsp;
According to Kochan, a former NASA, FAA, and U.S. Air Force human factors consultant, “This study is unique in that it consolidates data to offer direct, valid, and reliable information regarding the risks of specific hazards in clearly defined aviation operations. It offers a data visualization protocol that is replicable over time.
“In view of safety risk management, this will provide much-needed tracking data for many segments of our aviation system. It is a tool to help mitigate known risks and improve safety, unlike other processes in the past.”
The study itself covers more than 50 pages of analysis with supporting charts and tables. Key findings include:
• LOC-I accidents top the list in fatalities in every airplane segment: 59% of GA business aviation fatalities, 83% of executive/corporate fatalities, and 24% of Part 135 charter fatalities.&nbsp;
• The most common type of accident is not always the deadliest. For example, in Part 135 airplanes, abnormal runway contact is the most common type of accident (14%), but accounts for just 2% of the fatalities. Conversely, LOC-I accounts for 12% of accidents and 24% of fatalities in this segment.&nbsp;
•&nbsp;In Part 135 helicopter operations, unintended flight into IMC leads on fatalities—it accounts for 8% of the accidents, but 24% of the fatal accidents and 40% of the fatalities.&nbsp;
• The business helicopters follow the airplane pattern based on small totals (35 accidents over the 10-year period). In this category, LOC-I leads all three measures, with 14% of the accidents, 33% of fatal accidents, and 27% of fatalities.&nbsp;
NTSB accident classifications follow CAST/ICAO Common Taxonomy Team (CICTT) guidance and assign each accident a single defining event. This constrained the study’s analysis of broad accident categories such as runway safety. ICAO defines a runway excursion as an overrun or veer-off, consistent with CICTT guidance.&nbsp;
This limitation became apparent during validation. Runway excursions appeared in the airplane study’s top-three rankings only once in the executive/corporate segment, where they ranked second. They accounted for 16% of accidents, 50% of fatal accidents (tied with LOC-I), and 17% of fatalities in that segment.
These runway safety events remain a concern, but the dataset often classifies them under other NTSB categories, such as runway overshoot/undershoot, loss of control on the ground, or abnormal runway contact.&nbsp;
The study aimed to highlight business aviation’s deadliest accidents, all of which are preventable. Its findings should guide industry and operators in directing resources where they matter most, with the goal of eliminating fatalities. The coauthor’s next plan is to apply the same methods to a broader set of general aviation files, including personal, instructional, and other operations.

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